Vliv struktury osídlení kraje a vybraných socioekonomických ukazatelů na dopravní poptávku

Abstract

The doctoral thesis deals with transport demand, which is part of traffic models. It is an analysis and forecast traffic demand of people. The influence between area and traffic demand is not enshrined in the Czech guidelines as it is for example in the US. The goal of the document is partly to contribute to find some principles of passenger traffic demand model in the Czech republic conditions. In principle, it is filled and upgraded basic methodology of a four step traffic model or its parts. Major work is devoted to the analysis of trip rates and the possibility of creating their forecasts for generating traffic volumes in the model. Solution of the problems determining transport demand is highly multidisciplinary affecting urbanism, psychology, sociology, demography, traffic engineering and economics. One cannot therefore establish an objective comprehensive design solution process modeling traffic demand in this dissertation. The real goal is to find and evaluate the partial parts that can be used for modeling traffic demand in the Czech Republic using an appropriate software, local surveys and comparison of the available information. Research is therefore aimed at extending procedures worked in research project for the Ministry of Transport of the Czech Republic no. 1F81A / 047/120 by EDIP in the Czech Republic, which dealt with automobile traffic forecast method of a single growth factor. The paper compares different trip rate model forecast constructed based on available local data to forecast traffic at the national level. Outside research trip rate relationships is also an analysis of the available evidence for the formation of traffic models in the Czech Republic and the possibilities of a model calibration according to the documents. The target group is the result of work professionals in the field of transport modeling. The results are useful for modeling transport and transport demand on municipal and regional level.