Posouzení výhodnosti indikátorů technické analýzy na komoditní index

Abstract

The problem of application of analytical tools of technical analysis on predicted values of commodity index is described in this thesis. In the first chapter of this thesis the characteristic of market with commodities is described. Firstly the historical development of business with commodities is introduced and futher also the types of businessmen acting on the commodity markets. Subsequently the commodities are divided into basic groups and certain chosen commodities are briefly described. Finally the opportunities for investments into commodities with focus on commodity index are explained.

In the second chapter I briefly summoned development of technical analysis in time and methodology of technical analysis. Futher the technical indicators are divided and some chosen indicators of technical analysis are described. At the end of this chapter the mean-reversion processes are described. These processes are used in the process of simulation of commodity prices.

In the application part of this thesis I tested and assessed chosen analytical tools of technical analysis on thousands of predicted scenarios of the commodity index RICI and evaluated advantages of their usage in the future for investors with different attitude to risk which mirrors the goal of this thesis.